The United States could face shortages of critical precision-guided missiles if fighting with Iran continues for an extended period as Tehran adapts its tactics and increases pressure on American air defenses, Katherine Thompson, a senior fellow in defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, told the New York Post.
The U.S. military can sustain current operations, but inventories of some advanced munitions could become a growing concern if the conflict expands or lasts for months.
"Time is the main factor here. If this goes on for weeks and then we settle into a cease-fire, it could be fine," Thompson told the news outlet.
The concerns follow heavy U.S. military operations against Iranian targets and continued American support for allies overseas, both of which have consumed large quantities of precision weapons.
The United States has used large quantities of high-end munitions in the conflict, including Tomahawk cruise missiles, Patriot interceptors, and Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missiles. Replenishing some of those inventories could take years because of production limits and supply chain constraints.
Although the U.S. remains capable of fighting Iran in the near term, a prolonged campaign would place increasing strain on missile stockpiles and the broader defense industrial base.
Iran has also adapted its tactics, using more sophisticated ballistic missiles, drones, and other weapons designed to challenge U.S. and allied missile defense systems. Recent attacks have shown that even extensive air defense networks cannot guarantee every incoming missile will be intercepted.
The issue has taken on greater urgency following Iranian missile strikes against U.S. forces in Jordan, including one that killed two American soldiers after a missile hit troop housing at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base.
The Pentagon has said U.S. forces remain prepared to meet operational demands and that the Department of War is working with weapons manufacturers to expand production and strengthen the defense industrial base.
The challenge extends beyond the current conflict. The U.S. must balance sustaining operations in the Middle East while preserving enough advanced weapons to deter or respond to potential crises elsewhere, particularly in the Indo-Pacific.
The strain could become more severe if Iran continues launching missiles and drones at a pace that forces the U.S. and its allies to use expensive interceptors faster than they can be replaced.
Despite the military escalation, officials in Washington and Tehran have continued to signal that they remain open to diplomatic negotiations aimed at reducing tensions and preventing a broader regional war.