U.S. crude oil has nearly retraced its entire wartime spike, but drivers are not seeing the relief at the pump that President Donald Trump promised, and the gap is now driving a political fight between the White House and the industry it usually counts as an ally.

West Texas Intermediate closed Friday at $69.23 a barrel, the lowest settlement since late February and barely above the prewar mark, even as airstrikes between U.S. and Iranian forces tested the week-old Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding.

The national average for regular gasoline held at about $3.90, roughly a dollar above where it stood the week before the war began.

The split has put Trump on a collision course with major producers.

In a Truth Social post early Wednesday, the president accused the industry of "gouging" customers and said he had ordered the Justice Department to investigate, writing that "the big Oil Companies are not dropping their price at the pump commensurate with the sharply lower prices they are paying for Oil."

The American Petroleum Institute, the industry's main Washington lobby, pushed back the same day, with spokesperson Bethany Williams saying gasoline prices "don't move in lockstep with crude oil, especially during a major global disruption that is still affecting supply, refining, and inventories."

That disruption is still very real.

The Islamabad MOU, signed June 17 by Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, called for the toll-free reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which roughly a fifth of global oil moves, but the agreement has been strained by Iranian threats to close the strait again and by a Thursday drone strike on the Singapore-flagged container ship Ever Lovely.

U.S. Central Command said its aircraft hit Iranian missile and drone storage sites and coastal radar on Friday in response, even as tanker traffic through the waterway accelerated and Persian Gulf exports climbed back to about 75% of prewar levels.

Analysts say the lag in pump prices reflects how the retail market is built rather than coordinated profiteering.

Refiners and station operators bought higher-cost product weeks ago and are still working through it.

Summer driving demand is at its peak, and corporate inventories drawn down during the conflict have not yet been rebuilt.

Rob Smith, director of global fuel retail at S&P Global Energy's Refining and Marketing group, told The Hill that the U.S. retail gasoline market "is so incredibly fragmented in terms of ownership that it's very difficult for there to be any kind of coordinated effort."

The structure of the business runs counter to the gouging claim.

The National Association of Convenience Stores reports that about 55% of U.S. gas stations are single-location operators, and the API says fewer than 5% are owned by major oil companies, leaving the brands on the canopy largely separated from the pricing decisions made at the curb.

Past federal probes into retail fuel markets, conducted under both parties, have generally found no anti-competitive conduct beyond isolated local cases.