Democrats are pointing to the higher turnout in this year's congressional primaries and special elections as evidence that voters are increasingly frustrated with Washington and energized ahead of the 2026 midterms.

A Washington Post analysis of House primary races across 25 states found Democrat turnout has risen sharply compared with the last midterm cycle. More than 90% of Democrat House primaries held so far this year drew more voters than comparable races in 2022, when Republicans won back control of the House.

So far, Democrats have cast roughly 12.6 million primary ballots compared with 8.6 million for Republicans.

The numbers have boosted Democrat hopes of reclaiming Congress, though political analysts caution that primary turnout and special election results are often unreliable predictors of November outcomes.

"Something would really fundamentally have to change in a way that would favor the Republicans to change the dynamics that we're seeing right now," Michael McDonald, a University of Florida voter turnout researcher and political science professor, told the Post.

Republicans remain confident they can hold their advantage, arguing that general election voters are far different from the activists who dominate primary elections. GOP strategists also point to favorable congressional maps, strong fundraising, and historical voting trends that often determine midterm results.

The Post analysis found turnout increased in nearly 93% of Democrat House primaries that were also contested in 2022, compared with 57% of Republican primaries.

Democrat participation also rose in several Republican-leaning districts, including Georgia's heavily Republican 10th Congressional District, where Democrat primary turnout reportedly jumped 70% from 2022 levels.

Georgia Democratic Party Chairman Charlie Bailey attributed the increase to voter concerns over the economy and the cost of living.

Democrats have also highlighted recent special election victories. One of the most notable came in Georgia, where Democrat Eric Gisler won a state House special election in a district President Donald Trump had carried by 12 percentage points just a year earlier.

"Democrats are fired up in general. I think Republicans are a little more subdued," Gisler told the Post.

Gisler also pointed to voter frustration over the cost of living and inflation.

"Well, they're not getting low prices," he said.

Still, Republicans note that special elections and primaries typically draw a small share of the electorate and often favor the party out of power.

With months remaining before voters head to the polls, GOP leaders argue that economic issues, campaign spending, and turnout among independent voters will ultimately determine whether Democrats' early enthusiasm translates into electoral gains.

For now, Democrats see encouraging signs in the numbers, while Republicans insist the only turnout that matters is the one that occurs in November.