In pondering the current state of climate modeling, I recall the haunting lyrics of Joni Mitchell’s song, “Both Sides Now”:

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I’ve looked at clouds from both sides now

From up and down, and still somehow

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It’s cloud illusions I recall

I really don’t know clouds at all….

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Those words sum up the current state of climate modeling. After 50 years, climate modelers still don’t have a handle on clouds’ effect on Earth’s climate. NASA-GISS climate modelers say as much in the section on the NASA-GISS website entitled: Cloud Climatology: Computer Climate Models. It states that contemporary models are given information about clouds and rainfall that are only accurate to within about 25–35%. For a climate model to be useful it must be accurate to something like 0.25%. Thus, today’s models must be improved by about a hundredfold in accuracy to be of any value. It is a startling confession and one that policy makers should take to heart.

To understand Earth’s climate, and particularly its energy balance, one must take into consideration all elements influencing it. Radiant energy output (long wave radiation) at the top of Earth’s atmosphere remains in equilibrium with radiant energy input from the sun (short wave radiation). Short wave radiation that is not reflected by clouds back into space reaches Earth’s surface where it is absorbed. The surface, being in contact with the adjacent air mass, heats it and increases its buoyancy allowing it to rise. This mechanism of air convection transports energy to the upper reaches of the atmosphere at which point it radiates into space. Long wave radiation from the surface is also absorbed by water vapor, clouds, and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere which in turn radiate energy in all directions including back to the surface. This impedes the efficient transfer of energy into space and in the process, warms the surface further.

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Clouds interact with both incoming short wave and outgoing long wave radiation. They are so important to this process that Will Happer in his paper, Radiation Transport in Clouds observes that doubling of CO2 concentrations, a 100% increase, only decreases radiation to space by about 1%, while low cloud cover need only to decrease by a few percent to effect an even greater increase in solar heating of the Earth.  Presently, climate modelers are downplaying its significance.

It is an indictment of our policy makers that they would be so thoroughly awestruck by so-called experts in the field of climate science as to not question them about the inadequacy of their climate models with respect to clouds. They obviously ignore the NASA-GISS admission and Will Happer’s observation. If I were to guess why, I would say because they became infatuated with climate alarmism in their youth after which it became an inextricable part of their identity. They harbor illusions from their youth, like we all do. Joni Mitchell had something to say about that in the closing lyrics of her song.

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I’ve looked at life from both sides now

From win and lose and still somehow

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It’s life’s illusions, I recall

I really don’t know life at all

Image generated by ChatGPT.