War and elections

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Paraphrasing New York Times editorial writer Thomas Friedman during a CNN appearance on Smerconish, no matter how dangerous and awful the Iranian regime is, he can’t hope for American victory because DJT would get some credit and he is such a terrible person—Friedman doesn’t “want to see Bibi…or…Trump politically strengthened….” We can’t do anything about the crowd Friedman represents, which is unfortunately a large group.

On the side of those that are for the United States, even if Trump gains some credit, there is a nervous unease. Trump seems to be more concerned with long-term results than the approaching midterms. If we don’t end the war soon and lower gas prices, the midterms could be very bad for the good guys.

I am old and have an experience that colors my view, despite my own concern about the midterms. I am a Vietnam veteran. While my experience affected me deeply, my experience only makes me an expert on my experience. I wanted to know more. So I did a lot of research and wrote a book. The experience of writing that book affects my view of presidential decisions and elections.

It turns out that President Lyndon Johnson and Secretary of Defense Robert McNamara did have a plan for Vietnam, and its original goal was victory. If you want to know the plan, read my book. To make a long, long, story very short, on November 5, 1966, Robert McNamara recommended and Lyndon Johnson approved changing the strategic goal in the war from victory to stalemate. The fundamental justification in McNamara’s memorandum recommending changing the goal from win to tie was that this would improve Johnson’s prospects in the 1968 election. They did not share this decision with the American people. My father was in Vietnam when this decision was made (my time came later), and clearly no one told him we had stopped trying to win.

My research reveals a strategic decision based on crass domestic politics. This affected my personal view of presidential decision-making. One could argue it lowered the bar. For me, as long as the president believes his strategic decision is what is best for the country, I am with him. If the decision is not popular and he tries to spin it in the most positive light, that’s okay as long as the base of the decision was the belief that it was best for the country.

If the strategic decision were based on what is best for the next election and I find out about it, no amount of spin is enough. As it turned out for Johnson, his slimy decision based on domestic politics turned out to be a fatal domestic political blunder. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

Let’s hope that Trump doesn’t fall victim to the same blunder.

(My book is Vietnam: Strategy for a Stalemate, Paragon House, 1989. My footnotes are at the bottom of each page.)

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