During this Christmas season, most families will rewatch 'Home Alone'. Surely, one has to suspend quite a bit of belief to think this story could actually happen. One man took it even farther and did the math.

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After rewatching Home Alone, I couldn’t stop wondering:

how plausible is the oversleep that leaves Kevin behind?
So I wrote a tiny paper and ran the numbers.

Merry Christmas! 🎄 pic.twitter.com/jhtrVe1AuT

— Luis Batalha (@luismbat) December 24, 2025

He found it was quite possible for all of the adults to sleep past 8:00 am.

#facts The missus and I made this exact comment when we watched Home Alone this year: “No way all those kids and all those adults overslept. You know somebody is an early morning cartoon kid.” https://t.co/gumaHdhinw

— Benjamin Dougherty (@BenDougherty) December 24, 2025

Look what you can do with a career in STEM kids https://t.co/OE0uNohA0T

— mtthwhgn  (@mtthwhgn) December 24, 2025

Look what you can do with all of your free will and adult math skills. Don't ever let anyone say you won't use Statistics after college.

I’m going to level with you: anything set using LaTeX (the “science paper” typesetting tool) looks 50% more credible to me. https://t.co/xPgWFuOgkA

— Ryan Cousineau (@rcousine) December 24, 2025

The chance of all the McCallisters oversleeping their alarm is 0.13%, or 1 in 750https://t.co/0UthaU1Yd2 https://t.co/qy7PZKFqg1

— Joe Bishop-Henchman 🗽💸⚖️🚆 (@jbhenchman) December 24, 2025

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For those who didn't want to read the whole thing. 

Post inspired me to create a Die Hard variant… perfect for 🎄

This is a mini “applied probability” paper: model the whole plot as a random total time T (movement + fights + improvisation + comms), approximate T as Gaussian, then compute the tail probability that McClane can… https://t.co/xdlwNEjXRc pic.twitter.com/HlOjy37WHZ

— Marc Lien (@marclien) December 24, 2025

Die Hard is a Christmas movie.

Loving this - perfect material for stats / probability theory class! Though I doubt the sleep time is a normal distribution (I think perhaps a Beta distribution), and the lack of codependency makes a naive model (obviously if a single adult would wake they would alert the others) https://t.co/2ztFragQE5

— Roy Shilkrot (@RoyShilkrot) December 24, 2025

Nerd alert. Heh.

This is the perfect Christmas present Mr. Batalha. This wins the internet for the season with me good sir.

Liked and followed.

Merry Christmas everyone! https://t.co/cq34yLeGcW

— Straight Lines (@econometricks) December 24, 2025

Good conversation starter for Christmas morning. 

The real research the world needs. https://t.co/Y7Kn8vhtrJ

— Thryve | Stress & Wellness (@ReallyThryve) December 24, 2025

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After rewatching it this year, i come to a new conclusion: Kevin shouldve beat Fuller senseless for not waking him up. https://t.co/uhpwPTvETg

— Regular Everyday Normal Guy (@DiaIUpModem) December 24, 2025

That's fair. 

Maths should be this fun for all to enjoy🔥 https://t.co/3J7tgh6uc0

— President Elect (@tumelokh) December 24, 2025

Your analysis leaves out an obvious factor that is likely given the loud activity at home but not depicted given the rating of the movie in question, a likelihood only enhanced by the uncle's avid pursuit of hair of the dog the next morning:

The parents were all drunk. https://t.co/eK00ek3vTW

— Benjamin Domenech (@bdomenech) December 24, 2025

Of course, there is an alternative explanation.

This might be one of the greatest things I’ve ever seen on social media. #Science https://t.co/tRBX0IljaO

— Cody Matz (@CodyMatzFox9) December 24, 2025

It's most definitely a welcome change. 

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