PULSE POINTS

❓WHAT HAPPENED: A jihadist terror group affiliated with al Qaeda is on the brink of seizing control over the African nation of Mali.

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👤WHO WAS INVOLVED: Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin and the country of Mali.

📍WHEN & WHERE: Late October into November 2025.

🎯IMPACT: If JNIM captures Bamako, this would be the first time a U.S.-designated terrorist organization controlled a nation.

A jihadist terror group affiliated with al Qaeda is on the brink of seizing control over the African nation of Mali. Late last week, the group Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin—which translates as Support Group for Islam and Muslims—settled in for a long-term siege of the country’s capital, cutting it off from access to food and electricity.

Already, JNIM—which was formed in 2017 after the merger of several al Qaeda groups—has seized large swaths of Mali. Areas under JNIM’s control have been subjected to barbaric Islamic law, with a popular TikTok star in the country, Mariam Cisse, having been kidnapped and beheaded by the group in a public square last Friday.

The United Nations (UN) considers JNIM to be the most well-organized and well-armed of the jihadist groups in the Sahel region of Africa. It is widely believed that should they maintain their siege of Mali’s capital Bamako for an extended period, the city will likely fall. If JNIM captures Bamako, this would be the first time a U.S.-designated terrorist organization controlled a nation.

Concerningly, it is believed that the JNIM group maintains close ties to central al Qaeda figures in Afghanistan and in Pakistan. This has resulted in their fighters receiving advanced training in tactics and bomb-making skills, which have allowed them to overrun Mali’s defense forces quickly.

While the rapid expansion of JNIM’s territory appears to be a relatively sudden event, in fact, it coincides with the decline of the Russian mercenary presence in the region. The National Pulse reported in March of 2024 that satellite imagery showed renewed Russian construction at a military base previously used by the Russian Wagner Group at Mali’s Modibo Keita International Airport. However, as Russia’s war in Ukraine has dragged on, the country has shifted resources from its Africa ventures, leaving a power vacuum that JNIM has filled.

Image by aharan_kotogo.

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