The GOP’s Audacious Midterm Strategy

It is no longer debatable that President Trump’s second term is remarkable for its historic and rapid accomplishments. During the first six months of 2025, he has secured the southern border, brought prices down on energy and food, begun deporting violent illegal immigrants, used tariffs to produce the first monthly budget surplus the nation has seen in years, made his 2017 tax cut permanent by signing the “Big Beautiful Bill” into law, ad infinitum. There’s little reason to expect this momentum to slow down in the rest of Trump’s term unless the Democrats win the House of Representatives in 2026.
Unfortunately, despite the ongoing turmoil within “the Party of Jefferson and Jackson,” it is quite possible that they can net enough seats in the midterms to overcome the tiny majority by which the GOP now holds on to power. If the Democrats are successful they will not merely obstruct the President’s agenda, they are all but certain to find some pretext to impeach Trump for a third time. In order to prevent that, the Republicans will need to defy history. The President’s party almost always loses House seats in the midterms. Consequently, the Republicans have a bold strategy that includes redistricting two states before the midterms.
Both Texas and Ohio will attempt to reconfigure their congressional maps in ways that will very likely increase each state’s Republican House delegation. In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbot has called a special session of the state’s legislature to address measures related to the disastrous Kerr County flood, but he has also included items on the agenda that are all but certain to result in changes to the district map. The special session is scheduled to begin on July 21.The current House delegation for Texas includes 25 Republican and 12 Democrats. The usual media suspects have inevitably implied skulduggery. CNN offered the following take:
It is rare for states to undertake a mid-decade redistricting without a court order to do so. But Texas is one of two states where Republicans are pushing to change congressional districts this year in the hopes of ousting several longtime Democratic lawmakers. Some Republicans are hoping new maps in Texas could result in the GOP picking up as many as five additional seats to shore up their chances of retaining the House majority … Targets for Republicans are expected to include Democratic Reps. Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez, who represent border communities.
According to a report in Signal Ohio, the state’s redistricting rules require its map to be redrawn before next year’s midterms because it was passed by the Republican-controlled legislature without Democratic support. Ironically, this will give the Republicans a golden opportunity to redesign the district map in their favor. Ohio’s current House delegation includes 10 Republicans and 5 Democrats. Punchbowl News reports that Sen. Bernie Moreno (R-Ohio) told them he believes “we probably end up” with that 12-3 configuration and that it “reflects the state.” The Republican majority is reported to be considering a 13-2 map.
It is all but certain there will be lawsuits filed by Democrat front groups in Texas and Ohio to somehow prevent the Republicans from changing their district maps. It’s probable that the infamous Elias Law Group will rustle up a few Democrat voters in each state and launch litigation against any Republican who will stand still long enough to be served. Inevitably, Rep. Al Green (D-Texas) denounced Gov. Abbott for including any agenda item about redistricting in his July 21 special session of the legislature. According to a report from Houston Public Media, Greene pledged to file a lawsuit against the state legislature.
U.S. Rep. Al Green of Houston slammed Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s plan to redraw some of the state’s congressional districts mid-decade during the upcoming special legislative session, under pressure from the administration of President Donald Trump. Green is pledging to fight the move by filing a lawsuit.… Three of the seats are held by Democrats of color — Green and U.S. Reps. Sylvia Garcia of Houston and Marc Veasey of Fort Worth. The fourth is vacant but has historically been represented by Black Democrats, most recently the late U.S. Rep. Sylvester Turner of Houston.
Gov. Abbott’s desire to discuss redistricting also incurred the wrath of Rep. Lizzie Fletcher (D-Texas): “Republicans already have a lopsided partisan advantage. Now, they are prioritizing helping out-of-state political operatives abuse the voting rights and distort the political will of Texans so that national Republicans can try to hold on to the majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives.” Meanwhile, omnipresent “experts” such as Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at UVA, portentously warned that the Republican redistricting strategy in Texas and Ohio is “both a gamble and an opportunity.”
No doubt Republicans in both states will take such esoteric words of wisdom very seriously indeed. What they can’t afford to do is sit on their hands and hope for the best. President Trump’s first six months in office render it obvious that he and his advisors were not idle during his four years in the political wilderness. They obviously arrived in the Oval Office with a well-thought-out agenda and a clear plan concerning how to execute it. It would be disastrous if the GOP loses the House in 2026 and the Democrats hobble Trump’s agenda with the kind of antics we saw after 2018. This redistricting strategy is well worth the risk.