AI companies desperately need you to believe your job is doomed… - Revolver News

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The AI industry has a very disturbing sales pitch right now.

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It’s a two-fold message. On one side, we’re told this technology will make our lives easier, boost productivity, help workers do better, and unlock some magical new future where everyone gets more done with less stress.

Okay, sounds great. But what’s the second part?

We’re also told that AI will wipe out a huge chunk of the white-collar workforce.

And it’s even stranger how that second part always comes up right when AI companies need another truckload of cash. There’s a very good reason for that, which involves the “AI bubble.”

See, the AI companies don’t just need AI to be some useful sidekick that writes fancy emails for a secretary or intern. They need it to look world-changing, economy-shattering, and powerful enough to make replacing millions of paid workers feel inevitable.

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That’s the vision they’re selling investors and corporations… a future with fewer annoying employees and a whole lot more profit.

Because if AI is just a helpful tool, the current spending frenzy doesn’t make sense.

But a machine that will replace whole sections of the white-collar economy? Well, now you’re talking.

However, that big, bold claim might not be as real as they want investors to think. It might actually be part of their game.

AI companies desperately need people to believe their jobs are doomed, because without that fear, the numbers behind this boom look like one of the most expensive and absurd sales pitches in history.

The issue isn’t that AI can’t do impressive things. It can. The problem is that the economic model behind the AI boom depends on convincing everyone that mass white-collar job destruction is not just possible, but basically guaranteed.

Kyle Mistele:

this is why the labs are pushing visions of mass unemployment and replacing the white-collar workforce

it’s not because the models can do it

it’s because they have to in order to make their economic model work and to keep raising money

the only way to keep raising hundreds of billions of dollars is to sell everyone on the idea you’re going to demolish a massive chunk of the labor market

otherwise it doesn’t work

Here’s a closeup of the image:

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The panic many are feeling is part of the business model. If AI companies want investors, banks, and markets to keep pouring in these ridiculous piles of money, they need a future big enough to justify it.

“AI will help with paperwork” isn’t even remotely close to big enough.

“AI will replace your entire workforce” is.

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This is where the numbers start getting really over-the-top. And the reason why is because the infrastructure built around AI is massive. And we’re not talking in a normal “tech-boom” way. It’s so massive that the whole thing only makes sense if AI turns into this man-eating revenue monster overnight.

Where’s Your Ed:

Whatever obtuse fantasies you have about the current state of generative AI are irrelevant to a much larger problem: that the infrastructure being built and compute commitments being made are being done so at a level that demands that generative AI and AI compute generate over $2 trillion in annual revenue by 2030. When I say that, I mean it absolutely has to do that otherwise none of the data center capex makes sense, and neither Anthropic nor OpenAI can pay their commitments.

So, as you can see, AI doesn’t just have to grow. It has to explode into one of the biggest revenue engines on earth.

The more people believe AI is about to replace large swaths of paid human labor, the easier it is to sell the fantasy that all this spending will actually pay off.

The AI companies need more, more, more. And if any part of this plan gets shaky, the whole plan falls apart.

Where’s Your Ed:

AI cannot, under any circumstances, slow down. In a year, Anthropic and OpenAI’s businesses have to be roughly twice the size they are today, and then double again basically every year until 2029 or 2030. In that time period, they must also both raise hundreds of billions of dollars or, alternatively, turn deeply unprofitable businesses into profitable ones while also doubling their revenues.

Alternatively, both must severely reduce their costs…except if they do that, they won’t have any need for all that compute capacity, which will deprive Oracle, Google, Microsoft, SpaceX, Cerebras, CoreWeave, TeraWulf, Cipher, and Hut8 of the $1.1 trillion in remaining performance obligations.

These companies need to spend like drunken sailors to prove they’re building the future. But if they ever admit the future may not be a rosy garden of pink slips, then this bubble looks insane.

So the hype and panic have to keep going.

Where’s Your Ed:

Put another way, there’s barely a few billion dollars of demand outside of two companies that lose billions — or tens of billions — of dollars a year.

AI is very useful.

But selling the public a future where everyone is supposedly lining up to buy AI and replace their entire workforce is a whole ‘nother story.

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And that part might be the snake oil here. And if companies gulp it down too fast, they may end up getting burned while the AI tech guys keep cashing checks.

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