Here we are, on the first day of a new year - 2026. Can you believe it? I was born in 1961, and throughout my youth, in the 1960s and 1970s, I doubt I would have had a hard time imagining what the world would look like in the distant future of 2026. I might have guessed at flying cars, people living on Mars, and a Jetsons-style future. I mean, for an 18-year-old in the bright, bright summer of 1980, who would have thought otherwise?

But while it's difficult, if not impossible, to comprehend what the world might look like almost half a century from now, it's a little easier to guess at what things might happen over the next 12 months. Predictions are hard to make, as the saying goes, especially when they're about the future. Nevertheless, I'm going to take a shot at a few. 

First, right here in the Great Land:

Ranked-choice voting (RCV). It's back on the ballot, the second attempt to ditch this bad idea. It was a bad idea when it passed narrowly in 2020, also on a ballot initiative. In that year, several states had this bad idea on the ballot, and Alaska was the only place it passed - aided by a flood of money from Outside. We're going to try to ditch it again, but at the moment, I'm not sanguine; I think we'll likely be buried in Outside money again. Prediction: Another narrow loss. 

Alaska will also choose a new governor this fall, as Governor Dunleavy is term-limited out. We have some good candidates, some so-so candidates, and some candidates that make you go "Wait, what?" But I think, based on Alaska's turnout in the 2024 presidential election and just my reading of the tea leaves, that the next Governor of Alaska will be a Republican. I think Bernadette Wilson is the strongest candidate at the moment, but the field ain't full yet.

Nationally:

The big deal will, obviously, be the 2026 midterms. The success of President Trump's second term will hinge a lot on Congress, specifically, on who stays in control of Congress. The chances of a GOP hold of the White House depend a lot on that success or failure. In the swing states, Republicans have to win and win big, beyond the margins of fraud and shenanigans. We have to get out and vote in November. Republicans, for whatever reason, don't turn out as much in midterm years as they do in presidential election years, but this year has to be the exception. We have to get out and get this done. If we can do that... Well, I'm cautiously predicting a GOP hold in the Senate, with another slim GOP majority in the House. Get out and vote, folks, as though the republic depends on it, because it does.

Vice President Vance will continue to be active in the administration, and as the midterms approach, he will increasingly come into the role of heir apparent. The vice president is the presumptive front-runner for 2028, so watch for Vice President Vance to start leaning more into things like foreign policy. He's already a very active VP; in 2026, he will be more active.

Read More: 'You Don't Have to Apologize for Being White Anymore' – JD Vance Brings the Heat to TPUSA AmFest

The filibuster will remain in place. I don't see a lot of enthusiasm in the Senate Republican leadership for scotching this old tradition, despite any short-term gain they may realize from doing so. Majority Leader Thune isn't in favor of nuking the filibuster, no doubt thinking that they'll hand the Democrats a real sharp tool for the next time they are in the majority; and, they will again be in the majority, sooner or later. But here's the thing: If the GOP doesn't do this and follow up by ramming through the GOP/MAGA agenda, the Democrats sure as shootin' will do it at the first opportunity. Regardless, I think the filibuster stays in place in 2026.

The World:

Europe's decline will continue. Populist leaders are turning up in some of the nations on the Continent. Britain may have a chance if it is sensible enough to let Nigel Farage's Reform Party have the reins for a while. Italy has a great leader in Giorgia Meloni. But Germany, France, the Netherlands, the nations of Scandinavia, they may already be past the point of no return. Ethnic Europeans aren't having kids, and they have imported a growing, increasingly vocal minority from the Muslim world that, in another generation or two, will be a majority. In 2026, watch for more unrest from this sector.

On the bright side: Something big is happening in Iran. It looks like it's about to get very interesting. Tehran is dying of thirst, due to drought and also due to the incompetence of the ruling mullahs and their predilection for funding terrorists rather than handling actual distributed interests of the Iranian people, like basic infrastructure. The Roman Senate, two thousand years ago, could deliver clean water to the citizens of Rome, but the Iranian mullahs can't do it now. It's looking a lot like the Iranian people have finally had enough, and in the end, it has to be the Iranian people who toss those Bronze Age barbarians out. I think this may well be the year they do it.

This will put a major dent in the bank balances of Hamas, Hezbollah, the Islamic State, and other Islamist terror groups. It won't stop them - but it will hurt them.

Read More: Watch: Protests in Iran Are Spreading, As More Bravely Stand Up to the Regime

China will continue to push for greater influence in the West Pacific. I don't see an attempt on Taiwan in 2026, but I think they will continue to put pressure on Taipei, as well as on Manila and even Tokyo. The Japanese, meanwhile, are remembering that they once had a great martial tradition and are dialing their military in. In 2026, I think things in the Pacific will be tense, but I don't think they will explode. Not yet. China's not ready for that yet - the problem is, neither is the United States.

That's it. Those are my predictions for 2026. I reserve the right to adjust them as events warrant. But I think the broad strokes are correct, and at the end of this new year, in which I still don't have a flying car, we'll see how well I did.

Happy 2026, all of you wonderful RedState readers and VIP members. May your 2026 be happy, healthy, and profitable. And count on this: Whatever happens in 2026 and beyond, we'll be right here to tell you about it, and that's for sure and for certain.