More New Poll Data on Senate Races That Doesn't Look Good for Dems

redstate.com

We just reported on a new poll that has things not looking good for the Democratic candidate for the Maine Senate seat, Graham Platner. He's now trailing, according to a Fox News poll, and this is before even more things that may come out in a couple of weeks. Democrats are going to freak out when they hear this news.

But that isn't the only issue they have when it comes to the Senate.

New Poll in Maine Senate Race Shows Big Warning Signs for Graham Platner

As CNN senior data analyst Harry Enten explained on Wednesday, the Democrats have a serious math problem.

Right now, Dems have a math problem in taking back the Senate.
They need a net pickup of 4 seats & lead in 1 GOP held seat (NC). Rest are ties or GOP ahead.
Problem is the fundamentals.... Median of key 6 states: GOP with +6 on generic ballot. 53% say Dem party too far left. pic.twitter.com/FUdQRfXIAB
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 1, 2026

The Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control of the Senate, Enten explained.

The problem? The math isn't working for them. They only lead in one Republican-held seat in North Carolina (+7).

But the Republicans are ahead in Iowa (+2), Alaska (+2), and Ohio (+3), and tied in Texas. Although the races are close, according to the polling, Democrats would have to basically run the table to get the seats they need. That "tie" in Texas is also perhaps in question. I'm inclined to think the polling is overestimating James Talarico in Texas.

Enten then addressed Maine, which he didn't have on his board, but noted the new Fox News poll we talked about, that had incumbent Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) ahead by three points—despite Maine being a state that went for Kamala Harris in 2024.

Host John Berman asked the analyst: why are Democrats having such a problem?

Enten explained that, except for Maine, these states are red states, with the median having the Republicans up by 6 points in the generic Senate ballot. So that starts as an uphill battle.

Then, on top of that, 53 percent in those states say the Democratic Party is too far left. It's not clear if the polling includes the wins by socialists in New York and Colorado, with all their radical, unhinged ideas. But that is only going to stoke that legitimate concern even more. As we also reported earlier, polling indicates that a significant portion of Democrats are all in for the Democratic Socialists.

The Democrat Spin on DSA Takeover Takes Shape—But It Raises Two Questions They Can't Escape

So please, Democrats, keep highlighting all those socialists - they are the face of your party now, and people know it.

Enten looked to the prediction markets and observed that the Republicans' chances to hold the Senate have gone up since May, from 51 percent to 59 percent. So those numbers are also going in the wrong direction for the Democrats.

They simply have a "statistical math problem," Enten concluded. Add to that the numbers probably also not figuring in dropping gas prices, and those numbers are going to look even better.

Editor’s Note: The 2026 Midterms will determine the fate of President Trump’s America First agenda. Republicans must maintain control of both chambers of Congress.

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