Blakeman trails Hochul by just 6 points in NY governor's race, shocking poll claims

Republican Bruce Blakeman is within striking distance of Democrat Kathy Hochul in the governor’s race, trailing New York’s chief executive by just 6 points amid voter concerns about rising socialism, a shocking poll released Monday claims.

Hochul leads Nassau County Executive Blakeman 47% to 41% among likely general election voters with 12% undecided, according to the new survey conducted by the firm co/efficient for the right-leaning Coalition to Protect Nassau Taxpayers.

The findings clash with other public polls claiming Hochul, who is seeking re-election to a second full, four-year term, is up by a comfortable double digits or as much as 20 points.

Co/efficient accurately predicted in 2022 that the race between Hochul and then-Long Island Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin would be closer than public polling anticipated. Hochul won by six percentage points, the same spread co/efficient had between the candidates in September 2022.

Blakeman could capitalize on voters' reported worries about rising socialism, with democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani now the mayor of New York City and a wave of his DSA comrades winning Democratic primaries last month.

The survey found that 55% of voters were very concerned or concerned about socialism, while 45% were not concerned.  

And Hochul is not popular, according to the poll.

Only 32% of likely voters have a favorable view of the incumbent, 50% have an unfavorable view, and the remainder are unsure.

Asked if Hochul deserved re-election, only 33% of respondents said yes while 55% said they preferred someone new

"Hochul is deeply disliked across the state," said co/efficient pollster Ryan Munce.

Still, Hochul can bank on a lot of votes in New York City, where she leads Blakeman by nearly 60 percentage points in Brooklyn.

The problem for Blakeman is that a third of voters don't know who he is four months out from the Nov. 3 election.

Of those with an opinion, 26% have a favorable view of Blakeman, 21% unfavorable, 21% unsure and 32% said they never heard of him.   

But the big difference in this year's election is that it comes during Republican President Trump's midterm; the 2022 election was held during former Democratic President Joe Biden's midterm.

Historically, the party in charge of the White House usually doesn't fare in midterm elections. Democrats romped in a "blue wave" during Trump's first midterm election in 2018.

Trump remains unpopular in his home state. Only 36% approve of his job performance, 54% disapprove with the remaining 10% undecided.

Similarly, survey found that 36% of voters statewide had a favorable view of Mamdani, compared to 42% who didn't, with the rest unsure.

Only 35% of voters said New York state was heading in the right direction compared to nearly 48% or half, saying it's heading in the wrong direction, with the rest undecided.

Nearly half of voters cited a combination of pocketbook issues such as inflation and costs associated with housing, property taxes and the economy/jobs as top concerns. Only 7% of voters cited crime. 

The survey interviewed 1,085 likely voters between June 30 and July 2 via text and live phone interviews. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.96 percentage points.