The Strait of Hormuz will reopen without tolls, Donald Trump announced (Picture: EPA)

Donald Trump’s birthday wish for world peace may have come true.

The United States and Iran appear to have reached an agreement, which could see the Strait of Hormuz reopened and put an end to the two nations’ exchange of fire.

The US announced that a peace deal with Iran ‘is now complete,’ with the Strait set to be reopened without tolls.

While Trump has bragged about ending months of blockades on the vital waterway, questions linger about Tehran’s nuclear plans and wider security in the Gulf.

Dr Katayoun Shahandeh from the University of London told Metro that calling this agreement a peace deal is ambitious – at best, she says, it’s a ‘temporary pause with diplomatic ambitions’.

She added: ‘This is extremely fragile because the hardest questions have not been resolved. Iran’s nuclear programme, sanctions relief, regional security, Israel’s role, and the question of who can give credible guarantees have all effectively been postponed rather than settled.

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‘Trump has claimed to be close to a deal with Iran so many times that “nearly there” has become part of the theatre. Repetition is not the same as progress, and announcement is not the same as diplomacy.’

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Trump announced the deal ahead of his UFC birthday match (Picture: EPA)

There are other unanswered questions about the future of the Gulf Region after Israel’s renewed strikes on Lebanon, with militarisation and sanctions creating more instability. 

Dr Shahandeh added: ‘The greatest losers are ordinary Iranians. They are asked to pay the price for sanctions, military escalation, state repression, currency collapse, isolation, and geopolitical bargaining, while the men who make these decisions rarely bear the consequences.’

The ironic part about the deal, she says, is that Washington created the very instability it is now claiming to solve.

‘Iran, despite immense pressure, has played its hand carefully: it has survived escalation, retained leverage, and kept the nuclear question alive for another round of negotiations. That may be a strategic success for the Iranian state, but it is not a victory for the Iranian people,’ she said.

‘This deal may be real. But whether it can last is another matter entirely.’

The problem facing the US now The US will face further obstacles in the region after this deal (Picture: AFP)

Dr Andreas Krieg, Associate Professor at King’s College London, told Metro: ‘I do not see this as a strategic win for the United States. Quite the opposite.

‘The US may be able to present the agreement as a tactical off-ramp, but strategically, Washington comes out of this war weaker, less trusted and less able to impose outcomes in the Middle East.’

Trump repeatedly stated his aim to spark a regime change within Iran – something which hasn’t come to fruition.

‘The US joined Israel in a campaign that degraded parts of Iran’s military infrastructure, but it did not force Iran to capitulate, dismantle its nuclear know-how, abandon its missile programme, give up the Axis of Resistance or accept a US-designed regional order,’ Dr Krieg said.

‘In the end, Washington had to return to the negotiating table because the military track became too costly, Hormuz became too dangerous, and the Gulf states themselves pushed hard against a wider war.’

This conflict has shown that the power of the United States has limits – and that’s now clear to everyone, including Iran, China, Russia, the Gulf, Europe and Israel, he added.

‘The United States is still militarily powerful, but power is not the same as influence. Influence means persuading allies, deterring adversaries, managing escalation and producing sustainable outcomes. On all of those measures, Washington has come out damaged,’ he said.

What to know about the deal Israeli strikes in Lebanon have killed thousands (Picture: AFP)

The deal largely returns to a status that existed before the war, but with thousands of people dead and Iran wielding a new source of negotiating pressure with its ability to influence transits of the strait.

The Strait of Hormuz is crucial to significant shipments of oil, natural gas and related products like fertiliser, and its effective closure rocked the global economy.

Tehran has emphasised that it wanted a deal to focus on ending the war, with discussions put off until later on its nuclear program — the issue at the centre of it all.

Iran has 440.9 kilograms (972 pounds) of uranium that is enriched up to 60% purity, a short, technical step from weapons-grade levels of 90%, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency.

Iran has long maintained its nuclear program is peaceful and has not publicly committed to giving up the enriched uranium, which is believed to be buried under three nuclear sites that were badly damaged by US strikes last year.

Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.

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