Russia's Largest Oil Refinery in Flames

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Last night Ukraine struck the largest oil refinery in Russia which is located outside of Omsk, more than 1,500 miles from the Ukrainian border.

The Gazprom Neft-operated refinery is located on the northern outskirts of the city of Omsk, around 2,500 kilometers (1,550 miles) from the border with Ukraine. NASA satellites recorded multiple fire hotspots at the facility on Monday evening...

The strikes mark the first time the Omsk region has come under a Ukrainian drone attack since the 2022 invasion.

Sources told Reuters that the Omsk refinery processed around 23 million metric tons, or 460,000 barrels, of oil daily last year.

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Here's a map showing the location of the strike.

Russia has already lost about 20-25% of its refinery capacity in the past several months. This one facility accounts for something like 8-10% of Russia's total. Of course you can't assume it's a complete loss but the damage looks significant.

Also last night, Ukraine hit Russia's 5th largest refinery which is north of Moscow. This one has been hit several times before.

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In addition, Ukrainian drones hit two shadow oil tankers in the Sea of Azov along with several other targets on land.

Finally, there was a blackout in large parts of Crimea last night thanks to a series of strikes on the electrical grid. 

An overnight Ukrainian attack on Crimea knocked out power across the entire annexed peninsula, the regional energy provider said Monday morning, after Kremlin-installed authorities said a woman was killed during the strikes.

Krymenergo, the state-owned energy provider in Crimea, told the Interfax news agency that the regionwide power outage was caused by “external interference.”

Authorities in the port city of Sevastopol, where Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is based, directly attributed the blackout to an “enemy attack on energy infrastructure outside the borders of Sevastopol.”

I suggested more than a week ago that Crimea was turning into Cuba and that continues to be the case.

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Overall a pretty big weekend for Ukrainian attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure and further embarrassment for Putin. President Trump spoke with both Putin and Zelensky on Saturday. 

Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke with Donald Trump for nearly 90 minutes on July 4 in which the US leader again offered to help end the Ukraine war, according to the Russian foreign ministry...

“The Russian side once again emphasized the preference for a political and diplomatic resolution to the conflict,” according to the foreign ministry, while claiming that “Kyiv and its European sponsors are banking on prolonging and even escalating the conflict.”...

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he had also had a “very good call” with Trump on Saturday.

“There is a real prospect to put an end to this war, and America’s resolve is decisive,” Zelensky said.

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I think this really could be coming to an end this year, mostly because I don't think Russia can take another 6 months of these attacks. How long before Ukraine turns its attention from Crimea back to Moscow? When the lights go out there Putin's time to pretend all is well will be over.

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