Trump: Ceasefire Is 'Over,' Talks With Iran a 'Waste of Time'; UPDATE: More Strikes Coming

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"They're scum," Donald Trump declared about the regime in Tehran, while speaking at the NATO summit in Turkey. Sometimes, people have to learn the truth the hard way. And the truth that Trump has learned over the last three months is this: You don't negotiate with terrorists. Terrorists do not negotiate in good faith, and forty-seven years of dealing with the Iranian mullahs and the IRGC have proven it every single time. 

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Trump declared the ceasefire "over" at the same time:

Driving the news: The comments came just hours after the U.S. conducted a new round of strikes on Iran, retaliation for renewed Iranian attacks on commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.

What they're saying: "I think it's over," Trump said when asked about the ceasefire at the NATO summit in Turkey.

  • "I don't want to deal with them anymore. They're scum," Trump said.
  • "As far as I'm concerned, it's just a waste of time dealing with them."
  • Not to be too picky, but everyone already knew this three months ago, when the "ceasefire" first started. Benjamin Netanyahu tried repeatedly to warn Trump about the futility of "deals" with the IRGC and the mullahs; Israel had been forced into "deals" with their proxies for decades and not once had the Iranian proxies complied with the terms. Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton raised warnings about allowing Ahmad Vahidi off the hook and the dangers of setting precedents about shipping in international waters. Trump insisted that he and his team were dealing with the right people inside the regime, and treated Netanyahu as less reliable than the IRGC's representatives. 

    If Trump learned a lesson from that, well, he learned it a lot faster than Democrats like Barack Obama and John Kerry ever did. However, Trump lost a significant amount of time, momentum, and political strength in those three months, and the Iranians gained in nearly all of those areas. If the ceasefire is over and the talks now a sideshow, Trump will have to go back to war and attempt to build support for renewed action in the Persian Gulf. Having abruptly stopped once, his political allies here at home will likely be somewhat skittish about trusting Trump to see the mission through to the end this time. 

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    That assumes, of course, that Trump means exactly what he says here. This could be a negotiating tactic, and given that we have already ended the retaliatory strikes ordered yesterday, the Iranians probably see it that way. Trump could be trying to force the Iranians into an internal fight over concessions to prevent the further destruction of their infrastructure. If they don't take the bait – and I suspect there is much less internal dissent within the IRGC junta than many of us want to believe – then what? Does Trump really return to war? Or does he just keep up the tit-for-tat attacks indefinitely? Eventually, even Trump's political allies will start wondering how that ends, or if it ever will.

    One option for Trump would be to let Netanyahu and the IDF fully off the leash in both Lebanon and Gaza. Trump has had sharp words for Bibi's non-compliance in the MOU that Bibi had no part in creating, all while Hezbollah and Hamas refuse to disarm as agreed in multiple earlier "ceasefires." The Israelis want to end these threats for good after the October 7 massacres, and the only obstacles to success have been Western leaders who won't let Iran and its proxies lose wars that they start. The US could then keep its current posture of readiness and response while allowing the Israelis to finish off those proxies or force their exile for good. That may offer the path of least political peril for Trump, but it will energize the radicals on the Left in a midterm cycle where they have already had an outsized impact.

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    Unfortunately, all of the options now are worse than they were three months ago. Pauses are not neutral events; they benefit the weak at the expense of the strong. When Gen. Dan Caine declared that "no one should mistake our restraint for weakness," it revealed a lack of understanding of this basic calculation in war, especially with terrorists. Our pause and our negotiations allowed the IRGC to reorganize efficiently while boosting the credibility of their regime. We can't go back and undo those outcomes, but we can put the regime back on the path of ruin and collapse – if Trump has seriously learned this lesson. 

    Update: Trump decided to give Iran "a little warning" about what will come tonight:

    Trump also threatened to capture Kharg Island, and said that Iran wouldn't be able to prevent it. That would effectively seize their entire oil-export system, and Trump has been talking about that strategy for nearly 40 years. That would require boots on the ground, of course, and that would create even more complications here at home for Trump. Is this a pose for leverage, or has Trump decided that talks with "cuckoo" terrorists are truly a waste of time? I'm not sure which way to bet. 

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    Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all. 

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