If Iran wanted to test Israel's reliance on the US, the regime must have found its answer already. A new ceasefire has gone into effect immediately, this time between Israel and Hezbollah directly. It came after interventions by the US and Qatar:

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Israel and Hezbollah have agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon that took effect at 4 p.m. local time, a senior US official says.

The deal was brokered by the US and Qatar through talks with Israel and Iran respectively, the official says, futher highlighting Tehran’s ability to influence events in Lebanon.

According to the Times of Israel, this time there is no ambiguity about the posture of the IDF. It will remain in southern Lebanon while other negotiations take place:

An Israeli source confirms to Hebrew media outlets that the ceasefire has taken effect, adding that IDF troops will remain in the southern Lebanon buffer zone while threatening to respond if Hezbollah attacks.

That's a step back by Trump, who had reportedly asked Israel to withdraw as a means of enhancing prospects for a comprehensive peace deal with Iran. The Israelis flatly refused:

“The United States is committed to PEACE, and we encourage everyone in the Middle East region to maintain their commitment to allowing our negotiations to beautifully unfold,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

The message came amid mounting anger over what the Trump administration has criticized as indiscriminate Israeli attacks against Hezbollah, while clarifying that Jerusalem has the right to respond to attacks by the Iran-backed terror group and avoiding publicly calling on Israel to withdraw from Lebanon.

In private, however, the US has called for a withdrawal — and been rebuffed by Israel — as Iran claims the Israel Defense Forces’s continued presence in Lebanon is a violation of the memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran.

Israel has insisted that it is not beholden to the MOU and that it will not pull its troops out of southern Lebanon, a stance Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated on Thursday.

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Israel is not a signatory to the MOU and is clearly not limited by it. JD Vance tried to bully Israel into compliance yesterday by reminding the Israelis that the US is their "only ally," which isn't true but is close enough for careful consideration in Jerusalem. 

The Israelis have played this game for 40-plus years with Hezbollah, however, and know that a withdrawal at this point would just require to take the same ground again, sooner rather than later, when Hezbollah rearms the sub-Litani and attacks Israel in force ... again. Israel has more than one "agreement" in hand that required Hezbollah to disarm and to withdraw north of the Litani. Those "agreements" came with promises of United Nations enforcement and military assistance that never materialized and never will materialize. Regardless of Vance's foolish remarks, the Israelis are very well aware that they are largely on their own against Iran's proxies, and have been for decades. 

Nevertheless, the Israelis have apparently agreed to stop firing at Hezbollah, but want it made very clear that any attacks from Hezbollah will be answered in an asymmetrical fashion:

According to CNN's sources, Israel will not continue attacking Hezbollah for the time being, with the 80 sites targeted during Thursday night and Friday morning being the full response to the recent Hezbollah attack that killed four IDF soldiers.

“Hezbollah violated the ceasefire. Israel has agreed to let it be, which was relayed to the Iranians, and it’s up to Hezbollah to stop,” the US sources told CNN. ...

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Friday that he instructed the IDF to strike at Hezbollah "with full force" in response to four IDF soldiers being killed by Hezbollah on Friday.

"My directive is clear: Israel will not tolerate attacks on our soldiers or our territory, and it will exact a very heavy price from Hezbollah for these attacks," Netanyahu wrote in a post on X/Twitter. "The IDF will act to thwart any threat to our forces and our territory."

He also stated that IDF troops would remain in the security zone in Lebanon "for as long as required to protect the settlements in the north."

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Netanyahu makes it clear that the onus is on Hezbollah, but also on Trump. If he wants the MOU to succeed, then Trump needs to guarantee an end to Hezbollah action from Lebanon. Otherwise, the Israelis will respond in force and let Trump deal with the political consequences of dancing the Tehran Two-Step with a perfidious regime that has never honored a single "agreement" in its 47-year existence. 

Editor's Note: For decades, former presidents have been all talk and no action. Now, Donald Trump is eliminating the threat from Iran once and for all. 

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