The political drama about the Iran deal is nearing its climax as Vice President J.D. Vance prepares to sign on Friday the memorandum of understanding with Iran that he and Donald Trump electronically signed on Sunday. The administration just read out the official text of this MOU.

Most successful negotiations require some level of secrecy while they are underway, but the extended murkiness about this agreement—which the president has already signed—is unusual. Vance remarked on Monday, "The MOU is about a page and a half, so it is a very general document," and the text indicates the negotiators left most issues of significance unaddressed. The American and Israeli militaries performed splendidly during the six-week war, but the MOU reveals the White House is more eager for a deal than the mullahs are. This stage of the Iran conflict is a defeat, and the next step is to limit the damage to U.S. interests.

The MOU lays out several stages of negotiations, but the first one is the only one that is likely to go into effect and thus deserves the most scrutiny. In essence, the United States will "fully end the naval blockade within 30 days," "immediately" enable Iran to export oil and related products, and "make fully available for use" Iranian funds that the Treasury Department has frozen. Iran says it will "make arrangements using its best efforts" to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and not charge any tolls "for 60 days only."

Once those steps are underway, a final agreement will supposedly be negotiated. In the interim, Iran says it will "maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program" and Trump "will not impose any new sanctions and will not deploy additional forces in the region." The two parties commit to "the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon."

Much of the language in this document is vague, so it is difficult to pin down what each country has actually agreed to, but the plainest meaning of the text indicates a lopsided deal. The United States has committed to immediately easing its economic pressure on Iran, and Iran has only promised to set in motion a process that should eventually open the Strait. The Islamic Republic—which is still attacking shipping in the Strait—can drag its feet, but the United States must leap to comply. Tehran can continue its campaign of international terrorism, rebuild its war machine, and perhaps even extort protection money from Gulf shipping while Washington stands pat.

The rest of the document is unlikely to come to fruition unless Trump also caves on Iran's enriched uranium. The MOU's "minimum methodology" would permit the mullahs to keep a slightly lower-grade blend, which might actually ease their path to a bomb if it enables them to excavate their material that was buried by American B-2s last summer. Iran would receive over $300 billion if it came to an arrangement about its nuclear program that satisfies Trump, but with the pressure off, there is little reason to believe that it will make any further concessions. And CIA director John Ratcliffe reportedly told Trump that his agency collected intelligence indicating Iran's leaders intend to play a double game with these negotiations.

Some commentators have noted, correctly, that there are few yardsticks by which to measure compliance, to say nothing of mechanisms to enforce deviations from the agreement. That is beside the point. Trump signed this document because he escalated the conflict as far as he was willing to go, did not get the results he wanted, and is now trying to put the conflict in the rearview mirror. There will be little enthusiasm in the White House to hold Iran to its obligations and risk provoking it further.

If Trump does not find a way to recover quickly, this MOU could mark the effective end of his presidency. The air campaign inflicted significant damage on Iran's military capabilities and nuclear program, which will buy some time. But the Gulf Arabs, who have been in the crosshairs for months, are unlikely to wait until Tehran has fully rearmed to cut a deal. And since Trump has agreed to restrain Israel, which reportedly was not even allowed to see the text, he cannot use his most capable ally to curb Iran. The ripple effects could extend far beyond the Middle East. The midterms are looking grim, the Iran campaign has split the president's party, congressional Republicans are openly expressing their impatience, and Trump is now in danger of presiding over a regional collapse.

Second-term presidents often run into similar challenges, and many turn to foreign policy, where they have the fewest domestic constraints on action. Trump has a flair for improvisation and is eager to build a lasting legacy, so he is likely to make the same pivot. But to turn the tide against America's fanatical enemies, he also needs to exhibit steadfastness and resolve.

Update 3:20 p.m.: This piece has been updated since publication.