DELAND, Fla. — Republican candidates for Florida governor and U.S. Senate hold commanding double-digit leads with six weeks until Election Day, according to a new statewide survey from Stetson University’s Center for Public Opinion Research. The survey also found voters are more likely to say they are supporting their preferred candidate than voting primarily against the opposing candidate.

The survey, conducted Sept. 14-21 among 830 Florida adults, found U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds leading former U.S. Rep. David Jolly 51% to 39% in the race to succeed Gov. Ron DeSantis. Sen. Ashley Moody led state Rep. Angie Nixon 51% to 40% in the race for the Senate seat formerly held by Marco Rubio. Five percent remained undecided in each race. The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points for the full sample and plus or minus 4.3 points for likely-voter estimates.

The results include voters who first said they were undecided but then named a candidate they were leaning toward. That additional measure did not materially change the results.

Kelly Smith, an associate professor of political science at Stetson who directs the center, said the leads rest on genuine support rather than protest voting.

“Republicans hold double-digit leads in both statewide races, and notably, majorities on both sides say they’re voting for their candidate rather than against the opponent,” Smith said. “That suggests these leads rest on genuine support, not just negative partisanship, which matters for how durable they may prove in the final stretch.”

Donalds improved from 47% in the center’s spring survey to 51%. Jolly remained stuck at 39% to 40% across the two polls, a sign that months of general-election campaigning have not expanded his coalition.

Gates McGavick, Donalds’ campaign communications director, told Florida’s Voice the race is being decided on kitchen-table issues, not slogans.

“Byron will win on November 3rd because he has a plan to make Florida more affordable and defend the Florida Dream,” McGavick said. “Meanwhile, David Jolly just has soundbites and no substance.”

60% of gubernatorial voters said they were voting more for their candidate than against the opponent. Only 19% said they were voting mainly to stop the other side.

A separate name-and-rejection test underscored Donalds’ advantage. 41% of Floridians said they know Donalds and could vote for him, compared with 35% for Jolly. Roughly a third rejected each man outright, 32% for Donalds and 34% for Jolly, but Jolly also remained unknown to 25% of adults, compared with 21% for Donalds.

Jolly is trying to become the first Democrat elected governor of Florida since 1994. He selected former U.S. Rep. Gwen Graham as his running mate. Donalds chose former state Sen. Bryan Avila. If Donalds wins, he would become Florida’s first Black governor.

Moody was the strongest candidate tested on familiarity and acceptability. 47% of Floridians said they know her and could vote for her. 29% rejected her. 19% still did not know who she is.

Moody’s campaign quickly framed the Stetson numbers as confirmation of a widening advantage. The campaign account Moody Fight Club posted a graphic Thursday highlighting the 51% to 40% Senate result and called it “MORE momentum” for the senator.

Nixon’s problem was more basic: 32% of Floridians said they had never heard of her. 25% knew her and rejected her. Only 35% knew her and said they could support her. Her support ticked up just 2 points from the spring survey, from 38% to 40%, inside the margin of error and far short of what she would need to overtake an incumbent sitting at 51%.

56% of Senate voters said they were voting more for their candidate than against the opponent.

Moody’s job rating reinforced the structural gap. 50% approved of her performance in the Senate, 32% disapproved and 19% said they had not heard enough to judge. DeSantis, who is term-limited, stood at 53% approve and 43% disapprove.

Nixon, a Jacksonville democratic socialist, won an upset primary in August over better-funded retired Army Lt. Col. Alex Vindman. The Stetson findings suggest that primary victory has not translated into statewide name recognition or a path through Florida’s Republican-leaning electorate.

Cost of living and inflation dwarfed every other concern. 40% percent of respondents named it as the issue that will matter most in how they vote. “Threats to democracy” finished a distant second at 10%. Housing affordability was third at 9%.

That ranking favors the Republican argument that Florida’s economy and tax climate are the ballot’s central question, rather than the democracy-and-ideology frame Democrats have tried to elevate.

The survey also tested a proposed constitutional amendment that would raise the homestead exemption for non-school property taxes and restrict how local governments use property-tax revenue. 51% said they would vote yes, 25% no and 24% were unsure, short of the 60% required for passage. Smith said the amendment’s turnout effect remains an open question, but the candidate numbers themselves left little room for a late Democratic surge built only on undecided voters.

The Stetson survey used an online nonprobability sample from Qualtrics panels and was weighted by age, race, ethnicity, education, gender and region to match Florida’s adult population. Likely voters were identified with a modeled turnout score based on past voting and engagement. The center described itself as an independent, nonpartisan research unit at the university.

The general election is Nov. 3.

Editor’s Note: This story has been updated to include an exclusive statement from Byron Donalds’ campaign communications director Gates Mcgavick.