Texas enters another winter with heightened power-grid risk, driven by explosive electricity demand from AI data centers and rapid population growth, according to a new assessment from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.

The continental reliability watchdog placed the ERCOT grid among regions facing elevated risk during extreme cold, warning the state could see a 14.9-gigawatt shortfall if winter demand hits 85.3 gigawatts — a level comparable to the deadly 2021 Winter Storm Uri that left millions without power and contributed to 246 deaths.

“These facilities, used either to develop AI or ‘mine’ cryptocurrency, use an enormous amount of energy,” the NERC report said of the data centers rapidly expanding across Texas.

Tech giants, including Google and Meta, have poured billions into new AI facilities in the state.

ERCOT officials have offered a more measured outlook, pointing to major improvements since 2021. The grid has added 11 gigawatts of new capacity — mostly solar and battery storage — and the chance of rotating outages during typical high-demand morning hours this winter stands at just 1% to 2%, down sharply from 7% last year.

“2025 is going to represent a year with tremendous supply growth on the ERCOT grid,” CEO Pablo Vegas said, per the Houston Chronicle.

Yet in the unlikely event of a repeat of February 2021’s extreme freeze, ERCOT now projects peak demand could exceed 97 gigawatts — shattering the current record of 85.5 gigawatts set during the 2023 summer heat wave — and the risk of controlled outages would jump to 54%.

The probability of such a 2021-scale storm remains “well under one percent,” officials stressed, and no winter since Uri has approached that event’s duration or intensity.

La Niña is expected to bring warmer and drier conditions overall, but forecasters caution that the Polar Vortex shows signs of instability and sudden Arctic blasts remain possible.

Data centers present a growing wildcard. Requests from large power users have more than tripled in the past year, with nearly three-fourths tied to data centers. Many operate 24/7 and have shown limited ability to ride through voltage dips, potentially complicating grid stability.

A new state law gives ERCOT authority to cut power to “non-critical” large users before residential outages. However, rules defining which facilities qualify are still being drafted and are expected to face fierce debate.

More than four years after Uri, Texas has required power plants to winterize and has avoided blackouts since. Whether those reforms — combined with new solar, batteries, and conservation tools — will hold against another once-in-a-decade freeze remains the question no forecast can fully answer.