Voters in Arizona appear ready to move on from Governor Katie Hobbs, based on recent polling data that paints a grim picture for her reelection chances. An Emerson College survey released this week shows Hobbs with a net negative approval rating, sitting at 39 percent favorable against 40 percent unfavorable. That kind of underwater performance signals real vulnerability for the Democrat in a state that swung back to Republicans in the 2024 presidential election, where Donald Trump carried Arizona by more than five points.

The Emerson poll, conducted November 8-10 among 850 registered voters, tested Hobbs against several potential Republican challengers in hypothetical general election matchups. Against Congressman Andy Biggs, Hobbs edges out 44 percent to 43 percent, with 13 percent undecided. She fares similarly against businesswoman Karrin Taylor Robson at 43-42, and Congressman David Schweikert at 44-40. These razor-thin margins fall within the poll’s 3.3 percent error range, essentially making them statistical dead heats.

On the Republican side, Biggs dominates the primary field with 50 percent support, far ahead of Taylor Robson’s 17 percent and Schweikert’s 8 percent, while a quarter of GOP voters remain undecided.

“Heading into 2026, Rep. Biggs is the early favorite for the Republican Nomination for Governor,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

Biggs, who has secured endorsements from President Donald Trump and Turning Point USA founder Charlie Kirk, wasted no time framing the race around economic frustrations.

“The trend lines are clear: Arizona Republican primary voters are rallying behind our campaign because we’re focusing on the issues that matter and we can beat Katie Hobbs in 2026,” Biggs told the Daily Caller News Foundation. He pointed to “Arizonans of all backgrounds are frustrated with our state’s rising energy costs, anemic job growth, and the challenges of buying an affordable home, which are all problems directly tied to Katie Hobbs’ progressive policies and partisan vetoes.”

A separate Gray House poll from November 7 adds to Hobbs’ woes, showing her trailing a generic Republican opponent in a head-to-head matchup. That survey, reported by Newsweek, underscores how Hobbs’ personal brand may be dragging her down even further in a state where voters prioritize border security, lower taxes, and family protections over expansive government programs.

Hobbs’ tenure has been marred by controversies that continue to dog her. Back in 2022, she narrowly defeated Republican Kari Lake by about 17,000 votes in a race plagued by questions over ballot handling and certification delays in Maricopa County—issues that Lake has pursued through ongoing legal challenges. As secretary of state at the time, Hobbs oversaw the election while running for governor, a dual role that raised eyebrows about potential conflicts. Her office even threatened Mohave County supervisors with arrest if they didn’t certify results on schedule.

More recently, a 2024 scandal involving a “pay-to-play” scheme has drawn scrutiny. Hobbs’ administration approved higher pay rates for Sunshine Residential Homes, a foster care provider, shortly after the company donated $400,000 to her inauguration and the state Democratic Party. Arizona Attorney General Kris Mayes launched a criminal probe, and Republican lawmakers have accused Hobbs of abusing taxpayer dollars. Just this week, AZFamily reported Hobbs defending herself against fresh GOP calls for a legislative investigation, insisting the moves were above board but offering little to quell the outrage.

Hobbs also faced criticism for accepting $100,000 from Arizona Public Service, the state’s largest utility, to fund her legal defense against Lake’s lawsuit—funds that critics say create undue influence over energy policy decisions affecting everyday families.

With fundraising reports from her campaign showing strong hauls—outraising the GOP field combined for the third straight quarter, according to her website—the governor’s team projects confidence. Yet polls tell a different story, suggesting that scandals and policy missteps have eroded trust. As Arizona grapples with persistent inflation, border chaos, and housing shortages, voters may seek a leader focused on restoring opportunity rather than defending past actions.

If these trends hold, 2026 could mark the end of Hobbs’ time in office, opening the door for Republicans to reclaim the governorship and steer the state toward priorities like school choice, law enforcement support, and energy independence. For now, the race remains wide open, but Hobbs’ path looks steeper by the day.

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