Democrats appear poised to win a U.S. House majority in the midterms with Republicans retaining control of the Senate, according to Decision Desk HQ.

A new Decision Desk HQ forecast projects Democrats capturing the House with a 227-208 majority while Republicans narrowly hold the Senate in a 50-50 split, with Vice President JD Vance casting tie-breaking votes if necessary.

The model gives Democrats a 61% chance of reclaiming the House and Republicans a 57% chance of maintaining control of the Senate.

Overall, Democrats have a 65% chance of winning at least one chamber, while Republicans have a 35% chance of retaining unified control of Congress.

Despite the projection, the forecast also suggests the political landscape remains highly fluid with just over 100 days until Election Day.

Geoffrey Skelley, Decision Desk HQ's chief elections analyst, said control of the two chambers remains closely linked.

"What is happening across the country in one place is likely to be at least somewhat correlated to what's happening in another place," Skelley said, according to The Hill, noting that even small shifts in the political environment could alter the outlook.

Republicans currently hold a 220-215 functional House majority, but Democrats are hoping to capitalize on the historical trend of the president's party losing seats during midterm elections.

Still, Republicans have benefited from favorable redistricting in several states.

According to DDHQ, GOP-led redistricting efforts could effectively add about five Republican seats, meaning Democrats may need to gain closer to eight seats instead of the three typically required for a majority.

Skelley said the new district maps have "helped Republicans' chances overall and lowered the ceiling of what Democrats might hope for."

The Senate picture appears even more favorable for Republicans.

Although Democrats are targeting competitive races in North Carolina, Alaska, and Texas, they must gain four seats to flip the chamber.

DDHQ projects Republicans narrowly surviving despite several toss-up contests.

The forecast comes as Republican leaders have emphasized strong fundraising and organization heading into the fall campaign.

House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., have posted record fundraising totals this cycle, while President Donald Trump has signaled he intends to devote substantial political resources to defending GOP majorities.

The New York Times reached a similar conclusion earlier this week after surveying six polling and political experts.

Nearly all predicted Democrats would likely win the House while falling short of capturing the Senate, citing the GOP's redistricting advantage and the difficulty Democrats face in winning multiple Republican-leaning Senate states.

Even so, analysts caution that the race remains far from settled.

Republican prospects could improve if Trump's approval ratings continue to recover or if Democrats' lead on the generic congressional ballot narrows further.

Conversely, stronger Democrat turnout or deteriorating economic conditions could produce a larger blue wave than current models anticipate.