Jun 25th 2026|3 min read

In little more than a year, seven Latin American countries have held presidential elections—and right-wingers have won them all. Never has the regional pendulum swung so fast. Barring Brazil and Mexico, nearly every sizeable Latin country now has a leader who either courts Donald Trump or sounds like him. The latest is Abelardo de la Espriella, who was formally declared president-elect of Colombia on June 24th after a tight race. He calls himself El Tigre and promises to “hunt down” gangsters “in their burrows”.

This Trumpian “Orange Wave” has risen because voters are sick of gangs and illegal migrants. Centrists and leftists have failed to calm their fears. Populists on the right offer tough-sounding solutions. If Mr Trump can mass-deport migrants, they reason, why can’t we? If he can blow up drug boats, why shouldn’t we be ruthless? Such messages have proved popular. And leaders who imitate Mr Trump tend to win his favour, since imitation is flattery: he loves that.

In economic matters warm ties with the White House are clearly helpful. The region relies on trade with the United States. Chums may be spared the stiffest tariffs, and sometimes receive direct help. Argentina’s painful but necessary economic reforms might have failed, had they not been led by a pro-Trump president, Javier Milei. The US Treasury extended him a $20bn credit line to avert a currency crisis.

Military matters also have upside. Since Mr Trump replaced Venezuela’s dictator with his more pliable deputy, American forces have helped their Venezuelan counterparts recapture gold mines that had been controlled by criminal gangs. The governments of the Andean countries which produce and export most of the world’s cocaine—Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador and Peru—are ideologically closer to the United States than at any time since the 1970s. All are either exploring military co-operation with Uncle Sam or already co-operating.

The idea the gangs can be beaten has taken root. Nayib Bukele, El Salvador’s president, has jailed legions of suspects without trial and transformed his country from a murder capital into a place that is as safe as Canada. If he can do it, surely similar tactics will work elsewhere? If the Trumpists are correct, and a mix of military force, mega-prisons and pan-American teamwork can win the war on drugs, voters will cheer.

But there are reasons to doubt it. El Salvador’s success is atypical. Its gangsters relied on extortion, not drug-smuggling. Their victims were eager to snitch on them, once it became clear that a single anonymous phone call was enough to get any suspect locked up indefinitely. The drugs business is not like this. Cocaine buyers want to buy cocaine. If governments succeed in constricting the supply, the price tends to rise, increasing the incentive for new producers to find new smuggling routes. This is why Mr Trump’s campaign of bombing drug boats has had no detectable effect on the availability of drugs in the United States.

For some leaders, that may not matter much. By showing enthusiasm for the fight against gangs, they can look strong to voters and stay on Mr Trump’s good side. For others, such as Mr Bukele, the fight has offered an excuse to suspend civil liberties. Dissidents, knowing they can easily be locked up, tend to shut up or flee. Investors, who you might think would be attracted to El Salvador’s newly peaceful streets, are instead repelled by the absence of the rule of law. Since Mr Bukele came to power in 2019, his country has attracted less investment, relative to the size of its economy, than any in Central America.

Mr Bukele’s imitators claim they can be equally tough, but voters may find that right-wing populism brings big risks. It is useful to be friends with the giant in the north, but democratic institutions matter more, and last longer, than any American president. Don’t let the Orange Wave sweep them away. ■

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This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline “Riding the Orange Wave”