The early excitement about electric vehicles (EVs) sent Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) stock from the IPO offering price of $78 on November 10, 2021, to $129 on November 12. It trades near $14 today. The stock is down 90% in the past five years, as the company has made almost no progress to become a player in the EV sector.

A recent downgrade of Rivian’s shares shows some of the company’s problems. Guggenheim analyst Ronald Jewsikow cut the stock to Hold and his share price target to $16. He said the Trump cut in the EV tax credit would work against Rivian sales. However, the company’s overall problems are much deeper.

In its first quarter, Rivian posted revenue of $1.2 billion, about the same as the year before. The lack of progress undermined investor confidence. Rivian lost $541 million, compared to $1.45 billion in the same quarter a year ago.

Rivian only delivered 8,640 vehicles in the first quarter. Management said it would deliver 46,000 to 51,000 for the year.

Rivian faces several more hurdles. Its R1S SUV has a base price of $76,900. Its R1T pickup has a base price of $70,990. With even modest upgrades, the prices of these rise at least another $10,000. One of the points experts on EVs make is that the American public wants affordable ones.

The Rivian products have several competitors. Some of these are up against products that have been failures, but they still sell enough units to take demand out of the market. The primary of these are the F-150 Lightning full-sized EV pickup and the Cybertruck.

Ford has sold only 12,039 Lightnings in the first half. This, by itself, may be a sign of a lack of demand across the sector. Ford does offer 1.9% APR loans for 84 months. It is not giving these away, but they are certainly making them affordable.

Rivian Stock Price Prediction and Forecast 2025-2030

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